Exposing My Inner (Baseball) Nerd

Okay, play along for a moment as I do a slight statistical analysis here.

Ignoring the "traditional" statistics in baseball, which are mostly result-based (such as Batting Average, RsBI*, ERA, etc.), take a couple of metrics which are far more accurate in predcting outcomes in baseball.

No single statistic likely gives you a better perspective on run production than OPS (On-base percentage Plus Slugging percentage), and for pitching, while few give a good indication or predictor for success, but the best we can do right now is WHIP (Walks plus Hits per Inning Pitched).

Now, the Blue Jays are positively killing the rest of major league baseball in terms of OPS, but have a realtively modest lead in Runs. This should indicate that they are more likely to score more runs in the future, as satistically speaking, their wide lead in OPS should translate to an equally wide lead in terms of runs. This can be attributed to the nonsense statistic of "clutch hitting", for which any meaningful statistical analysis has either found it to be somewhat random and unpredictable or virtually meaningless. It's existence as an ability is, in any event, contentious.... but it's existence in terms of explaning run production (or lack thereof) can't be ignored. In short, as powerful as the Jays' lineup has been, they could arguably be scoring more runs... which is actually kind of scary.

The other end of things shows the pitching staff (a point of contention all year) is, as a group, not all that bad in terms of WHIP (12/30 in MLB), with a relatively awful ERA (24/30 in MLB). This actually shows that the team hasn't pitched all that badly, but has been screwed by lady luck.

In short, since they sit only 1 game out in the AL East, these statistical trends show that they've actually done so while not getting full production from their lineup, and disproportionately bad support from their pitchers. I think this bodes well that the Blue Jays aren't some flash-in-the-pan team doing it with smoke 'n mirrors... they're legit.

* - Annoying habit I've picked up from Fire Joe Morgan.. seeing as it's "Runs Batted In" (or RsBI) not "Run Batted Ins" (RBIs). Play along.... nod 'n simle.